Twitter Can Predict Who Wins GOP Race says New Study
More followers, better poll results
New research reveals that political candidates do better in polls if they have more Twitter followers, Mashable.com reports.
Zach Green, CEO of Twitter election researcher 140elect, wrote on his blog post last Friday that he anticipated the trend, but now he has the statistics to back up his claim.
“A lot of people were surprised [Newt] Gingrich is now in second place, but we’ve seen that coming since Sep. 7,” Green told Mashable. “Twitter indicates he’ll continue to pick up. ”
Gingrich gained new followers when he announced his candidacy May 11 and on Sept. 7 after a GOP debate. Both public events have led to poll gains.
For other candidates, Rick Perry's Aug. 13 announcement of his candidacy led to a spike in followers. For the following two weeks, he rose in polls. Michelle Bachmann's rate of followers has declined since Aug. 15, and so has her poll rate. Mitt Romney had three Twitter spikes: after his June 2 announcement, Sept. 22 debate and Oct. 11 debate. After each date, he rose in polls. He had a recent Twitter decline, which preceded his Nov. 11 fall in polls.